Victoria's Election: A Liberal Test for Australia's Political Future
Victoria's state election on November 28 has become an unexpectedly pivotal contest, with national implications that extend far beyond the state's borders. The sudden change of premier, the Liberal Party's leadership instability, and the rise of One Nation have transformed this race into a bellwether for Australia's political trajectory. For liberals who value civic integrity, minority rights, and evidence-based governance, the outcome will send critical signals about the health of Australian democracy.
Why This Election Matters Nationally
While voters often distinguish between federal and state politics, the Victorian election carries weight for the entire country. If opposition leader Jess Wilson can secure victory, the Liberal Party, currently struggling across Australia, will gain a much-needed boost. Conversely, a strong showing by One Nation, particularly in the upper house, would accelerate the party's momentum and deepen the crises facing the Liberals and Nationals.
The battle between the center-right Coalition and the populist right of One Nation is crucial. A Coalition victory in minority would likely require One Nation's support for supply and confidence, raising uncomfortable questions about governance and democratic norms. The prospect of a formal coalition between the Liberals and One Nation remains speculative, but the mere possibility underscores the erosion of traditional conservative values.
The Labor Party's Struggle for Credibility
Labor's position is precarious. The party holds a large buffer, needing only a 16-seat swing to lose its majority, but the Labor brand is deeply tainted. The Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission's report on the secret deal between the Andrews government and the firefighters' union painted a disturbing picture of misconduct. While IBAC did not find corruption due to narrow legislation, it identified serious breaches of policy, concealment, and misuse of information.
Premier Ben Carroll has attempted to distance himself from his predecessors, declaring, 'I am not Daniel Andrews. I am not Jacinta Allan.' He has announced a royal commission into construction sector corruption and pledged to toughen IBAC's powers. Yet his credibility is undermined by his service in both previous governments. His performance is better than Jacinta Allan's, but the question remains: why did Labor wait so long to install him? The answer lies in factional politics, with Carroll from the right in a left-dominated caucus.
The Liberal Party's Fragile Unity
Jess Wilson, the Liberal opposition leader, faces an enormous challenge. At 36 and in her first parliamentary term, she must carry a heavy load, including serving as shadow treasurer. The party's recent unity is fragile, following years of dysfunction and the controversial disendorsement of Moira Deeming. Wilson's tour of every seat in the state demonstrates her commitment, but the team remains weak, and the glue of potential victory is thin.
One Nation's Momentum and the Populist Threat
Pauline Hanson's One Nation party has seen its support potentially plateauing, with a recent Redbridge poll showing it at 22%, down from 27% in June. However, the party still poses a significant threat to democratic norms. Hanson's planned major campaigning role and the party's dozens of unannounced candidates suggest a concerted effort to capitalize on voter disillusionment. The populist appeal of One Nation, with its anti-establishment rhetoric and simplistic solutions, undermines the liberal values of reasoned debate and institutional integrity.
The Deeper Issue: COVID Lockdowns and Psychological Trauma
Redbridge's Kos Samaras argues that Victoria's record COVID lockdowns are a deeper factor in Labor's struggles. While the 2022 election was too close to reflect this, the 'deep psychological trauma' of the lockdowns is now playing out. This resonates with voters who feel betrayed by government overreach, even if the measures were necessary. For liberals, this highlights the need for transparent, accountable governance that respects individual freedoms while protecting public health.
What This Means for Australia's Liberal Future
The Victorian election is a test of whether Australian voters will embrace populist authoritarianism or reaffirm their commitment to liberal democracy. A Coalition victory, even in minority, would signal a shift to the right, but dependence on One Nation would be a dangerous precedent. A Labor victory, however unlikely, would be a 'miracle' akin to Scott Morrison's 2019 win. For liberals, the best outcome is a strong, principled opposition that holds the government accountable without resorting to populist tactics. The signals from Victoria will shape the federal landscape for years to come.