Germany's Local Elections Test Merz as the AfD Advances
Voters in two German states head to the polls on Sunday in local elections that could intensify the political crisis facing Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose Christian Democratic Union (CDU) risks damaging defeats that would fuel speculation about his future. Polling in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern suggests the chancellor's party is struggling to retain its footing, just two weeks after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured a landmark victory in Saxony-Anhalt, where the CDU's vote share was halved.
The elections come at a precarious moment for the federal government, a coalition between the CDU and the centre-left SPD that has governed for just sixteen months. Merz, a former corporate lawyer, has insisted he will remain in office, but his approval ratings have slumped and German media report murmurs of a possible mid-term leadership change, even if his would-be challengers remain hesitant to act.
What do the polls say about the CDU's prospects?
In Berlin, the CDU is locked in a tight contest with Die Linke for first place, and could lose control of the city government. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the party has hovered just above the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament, a result that would mark its worst ever performance in a state election. The AfD, meanwhile, is hoping to build on its recent success by topping the poll in the north-eastern state, where its anti-immigration, Russia-friendly, and Germany-first platform has resonated deeply in the former communist east.
The centre-left SPD has staged a late comeback in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern through its lead candidate, Manuela Schwesig, the current state premier. Schwesig has sought to consolidate the anti-AfD vote, billing herself as the Frau gegen Blau, or Woman against Blue, a reference to the AfD's party colours. Her local standing, however, contrasts sharply with the national SPD's fortunes, as the party endures an uneasy coalition with the CDU that has alienated many of its traditional supporters.
Why has Friedrich Merz's popularity declined so sharply?
The chancellor's difficulties stem from a combination of policy choices and personal style. His decision to tack right on immigration has failed to erode AfD support while alienating voters on the left. His blunt communication has also caused irritation, exemplified by his dismissal of work-life balance and his insistence that Germans must work more and take less sick leave. Supporters argue that Merz is prepared to administer difficult medicine, but the country's stuttering economy, high energy costs, and fraught debates over immigration have fostered a pervasive national gloom.
At a campaign event in Neubrandenburg, AfD supporter Reinhart captured the mood of disillusionment with the political establishment.
Not only in Germany. In Italy, in France, in Great Britain. Everywhere the traditional parties go down,he said, adding that Merz is
arrogant, out of touch, not on the same level as the general public.
Can Merz survive the internal party discontent?
While no senior figure has openly challenged Merz for the chancellorship, discontent within the CDU is growing. Martin Rohloff, the party's candidate in Neubrandenburg, suggested the chancellor lacks the Fingerspitzengefühl, the intuitive feel for ordinary people.
Maybe he wants the right things, but he cannot communicate well,Rohloff said. Asked whether Merz should step down, he conceded:
If I have to answer yes or no, I would say yes. There are other people who maybe have better feelings for the public.
The leaders of eight German states have publicly backed Merz, insisting that restoring trust in the CDU lies in listening and taking political action, not in personnel debates. The chancellor has vowed to press on with a package of economic, tax, and welfare reforms due before parliament this autumn. Yet Sunday's vote carries an implicit warning: that time may already be running out.
What are the broader implications for Europe?
Merz has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, and his fall would inject further instability into a continent already rattled by warnings of increased Russian aggression. He has reportedly cancelled a planned trip to New York next week and is due to meet senior party figures in Berlin on Sunday evening, an apparent effort to contain the crisis. The outcome of these elections will therefore be watched closely beyond Germany's borders, as a weakened chancellor would complicate European efforts to maintain a unified front against Moscow.
The deeper question is whether the CDU can reverse its decline by shifting further right, or whether that strategy merely legitimises the AfD's agenda while failing to reclaim disaffected voters. The evidence from Saxony-Anhalt and the current polls suggests the latter. For liberals and progressives, the stakes are clear: the rise of the AfD is not merely a German problem but a test of whether democratic institutions can withstand the appeal of authoritarian populism.
Frequently asked questions about the German state elections
What is at stake in the Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections?
The elections determine the composition of two state parliaments and could reshape regional governments. For Chancellor Merz, they serve as a critical referendum on his leadership, with the CDU risking historic losses that would intensify calls for his replacement.
Why is the AfD performing so strongly in eastern Germany?
The AfD's anti-immigration, nationalist platform has found fertile ground in the former communist east, where economic discontent, cultural anxiety, and distrust of traditional parties are pronounced. Its branches are partly classified as right-wing extremist by domestic intelligence, a designation the party rejects.
Could Friedrich Merz be replaced as chancellor before the next federal election?
Speculation of a chancellor swap has circulated in German media, though no challenger has openly stepped forward. The CDU's poor performance in these state elections could embolden internal critics, but replacing a sitting chancellor mid-term remains a complex and risky manoeuvre.